The paper begins with a general background of prediction markets, the HSX, and the Hollywood industry. I then present the data and methodology used to test my hypotheses before discussing results, applications, and areas for future research…Information markets have become increasingly popular over the last decade as their ability to accurately forecast future events including election results and Oscar winners have been publicized (Berg and Rietz, 2003; Elberse and Anand, 2007…
Pennock
other · 2 mentions across 1 reading
In this course
Pennock appears here as a co-author on work examining information markets and prediction mechanisms, specifically in the context of forecasting accuracy in domains like elections and entertainment outcomes. The citation positions Pennock's research as foundational to understanding how decentralized prediction markets function as epistemological systems—a key concern for the course's investigation of how algorithms and collective intelligence model uncertainty. This work is cited as evidence that market-based forecasting can rival or exceed traditional expert prediction, raising questions about authority, aggregation, and the role of computational systems in producing reliable knowledge.
Mentioned in 1 reading
Appears alongside
People mentioned in the same passages — sorted by co-occurrence weight.